Enchantment State News

It appears that social distancing and staying at home is paying off for New Mexico residents as officials said this week the projected shortfall in hospital beds and respirators caused by the COVID-19 outbreak has been less than expected.

“The dramatically different projections illustrate the uncertainty policymakers face while trying to combat a newly discovered coronavirus that has proved highly contagious and deadly,” the Albuquerque Journal reported.

New Mexico officials conceded this week their original predictions the state could be way short of hospital beds for the COVID-19 outbreak was off-base as they readied to reopen more businesses.

The Journal report said that three weeks ago, state officials released projections showing New Mexico hospitals could face a severe shortage of beds and ventilators as the coronavirus outbreak peaked.

The original projections predicted the state’s hospitals only had 63% of the hospital beds needed at the peak for the pandemic and a mere 38% of the ventilators.

However, Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham changed the grim forecast last week. She said the state is no longer as short as expected of sick beds or ventilators.

Health officials credited the behavior of New Mexico’s residents obeying shelter-in-place orders for the turnaround.

Jason Mitchell, a physician and chief medical officer for the State Department of Health and Presbyterian Healthcare Services, told the Journal even small changes in the transmission rate of the disease can create enormously different projections.

The state’s residents appear to have cut the potential person-to-person transmission rate of the disease by half of what could have been. 

“You’re talking about catastrophic life loss hinging on small changes in the transmission rate," Mitchell said. “Every little bit you bring it down markedly reduces that.” 

As a result, projected demand for medical beds has fallen this month while medical resources are increasing, Mitchell said.

In addition, area hospital staffers have converted respiratory equipment into ventilators, the Journal reported.

The old Lovelace Hospital in Southeast Albuquerque is being readied to add to the state’s bed capacity.